Club Leon
30%
Fair odds 3.28Bookmakers 30%
Guadalajara Chivas
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.33Bookmakers 44%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Club Leon | Draw | Guadalajara Chivas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Best price on offer | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas are rated 102 points above Club Leon (1453 to 1350), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Club Leon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Club Leon's chance of winning and takes the same from Guadalajara Chivas's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Guadalajara Chivas
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.5. Club Leon score 0.9 a match against an average side (11th in Liga MX); Guadalajara Chivas concede 1.4 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Club Leon LDWLD, gained 6 rating points; Guadalajara Chivas WWWDD, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Club Leon 30%, Guadalajara Chivas 44%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Club Leon won 5, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Club LeonGuadalajara ChivasClub Leon
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/11
09/15
09/21
09/28
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/25
11/02
Guadalajara Chivas
4/10 over 2.5
17 scored
9 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/14
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/18
10/21
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Club Leon | Draw | Guadalajara Chivas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Leon | 23%4.28 | 8%12.66 | 4%23.53 |
| Level | 7%14.51 | 15%6.75 | 17%5.74 |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1%— | 3%35.71 | 22%4.57 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Club Leon wins4Guadalajara Chivas wins- L Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Leon 5-0
- W Club Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas 1-0
- W Club Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas 2-1
- L Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Leon 2-0
- W Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Leon 1-2
- L Club Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas 1-2
- L Club Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas 0-2
- D Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Leon 0-0
- W Club Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas 2-1
- W Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Leon 0-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Club Leon's side.