Dunkerque
36%
Fair odds 2.75Bookmakers 34%
Guingamp
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.70Bookmakers 39%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Dunkerque | Draw | Guingamp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Best price on offer | 2.80 | 3.55 | 2.42 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Dunkerque and Guingamp are rated almost level (1345 and 1348).
-
Home advantage Favours Dunkerque
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Dunkerque's chance of winning and takes the same from Guingamp's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Dunkerque score 0.9 a match against an average side (14th in Ligue 2); Guingamp concede 1.5 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Guingamp
Dunkerque LDWLL, lost 14 rating points; Guingamp WWLLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Guingamp
Bookmakers rate Guingamp higher than the model does: Dunkerque 34% against the model's 36%, Guingamp 39% against 37%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Guingamp
Dunkerque won 2, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DunkerqueGuingampDunkerque
3/10 over 2.5
10 scored
15 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/28
09/04
09/12
09/18
10/09
10/17
10/23
10/30
Guingamp
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
13 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/16
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 56%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Dunkerque | Draw | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque | 22%4.45 | 6%17.21 | 3%35.97 |
| Level | 13%7.97 | 15%6.56 | 15%6.78 |
| Guingamp | 2%53.76 | 4%22.42 | 20%4.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Dunkerque wins4Guingamp wins- D Dunkerque vs Guingamp 0-0
- L Guingamp vs Dunkerque 2-1
- W Dunkerque vs Guingamp 3-1
- D Guingamp vs Dunkerque 1-1
- L Dunkerque vs Guingamp 0-1
- W Guingamp vs Dunkerque 0-1
- L Dunkerque vs Guingamp 1-3
- L Guingamp vs Dunkerque 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Dunkerque's side.