AIK
28%
Fair odds 3.54Bookmakers 24%
Hacken
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.13Bookmakers 53%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| AIK | Draw | Hacken | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| Best price on offer | 4.20 | 4.10 | 1.78 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hacken
Hacken are rated 56 points above AIK (1424 to 1368), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours AIK
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to AIK's chance of winning and takes the same from Hacken's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hacken
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.7. AIK score 0.9 a match against an average side (8th in Allsvenskan); Hacken concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hacken
AIK LDWDL, lost 6 rating points; Hacken WDWWW, gained 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Hacken
Bookmakers rate Hacken higher than the model does: AIK 24% against the model's 28%, Hacken 53% against 47%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Hacken
AIK won 1, drew 3 and lost 7 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AIKHackenAIK
8/10 over 2.5
18 scored
22 conceded
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
11/02
Hacken
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
4 conceded
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | AIK | Draw | Hacken |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIK | 21%4.66 | 8%12.02 | 6%17.39 |
| Level | 7%15.36 | 13%7.74 | 20%5.08 |
| Hacken | 1%— | 3%38.46 | 22%4.53 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1AIK wins7Hacken wins- D Hacken vs AIK 0-0
- D AIK vs Hacken 2-2
- D Hacken vs AIK 3-3
- L AIK vs Hacken 0-2
- L Hacken vs AIK 4-1
- L Hacken vs AIK 2-0
- L AIK vs Hacken 1-2
- L AIK vs Hacken 1-2
- L Hacken vs AIK 4-2
- W AIK vs Hacken 2-1
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from AIK's side.