Cheltenham
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.30
Halifax
30%
Fair odds 3.29
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cheltenham | Draw | Halifax | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Elo model | 56% | 25% | 18% |
Team news
- Joe Tomlinson Out
- Robbie Cundy Out
- Favour Onukwuli Doubtful
Cheltenham's injury list comes from a Halifax Courier opposition preview; no recent press-conference update was found, and Onukwuli's scan result was not reported.
No absences reported
No Halifax absences were reported for this tie. Shaun Hobson was reported fit despite a knee twinge, Lucas Houghton is eligible, and captain Cody Johnson's suspension applies to the next league game, not this cup tie.
Allowing for this news: Cheltenham 50%, draw 25%, Halifax 24% (xG 1.70 – 1.12). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: halifaxcourier.co.uk, halifaxcourier.co.uk, halifaxcourier.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cheltenham
Cheltenham are rated 75 points above Halifax (1171 to 1096), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cheltenham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Cheltenham's chance of winning and takes the same from Halifax's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cheltenham
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Cheltenham score 0.6 a match against an average side (22nd in League Two); Halifax concede 2.6 (6th best defence in National League).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Halifax
Cheltenham LWWLL, lost 16 rating points; Halifax WLDWW, gained 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CheltenhamHalifaxCheltenham
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Halifax
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
10 conceded
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cheltenham | Draw | Halifax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 28%3.62 | 6%16.37 | 3%35.97 |
| Level | 14%6.90 | 15%6.72 | 13%7.43 |
| Halifax | 2%50.76 | 4%25.06 | 15%6.80 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.