Halifax
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.62
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kidderminster | Draw | Halifax | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Halifax
Halifax are rated 56 points above Kidderminster (1096 to 1040), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kidderminster
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kidderminster's chance of winning and takes the same from Halifax's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.2. Kidderminster score 0.4 a match against an average side (24th in National League); Halifax concede 2.6 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Halifax
Kidderminster LDLDD, lost 10 rating points; Halifax WLDWW, gained 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
KidderminsterHalifax
09/11
09/16
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/27
10/31
Halifax
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
10 conceded
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kidderminster | Draw | Halifax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kidderminster | 19%5.13 | 5%20.20 | 2%54.05 |
| Level | 12%8.23 | 18%5.42 | 14%7.06 |
| Halifax | 2%64.94 | 5%21.14 | 23%4.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Halifax wins- L Kidderminster vs Halifax 0-2
- L Halifax vs Kidderminster 2-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kidderminster's side.