Brommapojkarna
Model pick
68%
Fair odds 1.46
Halmstad
12%
Fair odds 8.51
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Brommapojkarna | Draw | Halmstad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Elo model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Brommapojkarna
Brommapojkarna are rated 101 points above Halmstad (1336 to 1236), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Brommapojkarna
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Brommapojkarna's chance of winning and takes the same from Halmstad's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Brommapojkarna
Expected goals 2.1 to 0.8. Brommapojkarna score 1.0 a match against an average side (6th in Allsvenskan); Halmstad concede 2.2 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Brommapojkarna LDWLW, gained 12 rating points; Halmstad LWLLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Brommapojkarna
Brommapojkarna won 5, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BrommapojkarnaHalmstadBrommapojkarna
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
17 conceded
08/23
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/24
10/28
11/01
Halmstad
5/10 over 2.5
7 scored
16 conceded
08/17
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/23
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Brommapojkarna | Draw | Halmstad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brommapojkarna | 35%2.90 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 27%3.71 | 11%9.45 | 2%64.10 |
| Halmstad | 7%13.44 | 7%13.37 | 10%9.59 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Brommapojkarna wins1Halmstad wins- W Halmstad vs Brommapojkarna 1-3
- D Halmstad vs Brommapojkarna 0-0
- L Brommapojkarna vs Halmstad 0-1
- W Brommapojkarna vs Halmstad 4-1
- W Halmstad vs Brommapojkarna 0-2
- W Brommapojkarna vs Halmstad 3-1
- W Halmstad vs Brommapojkarna 0-2
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Brommapojkarna's side.