Werder Bremen
Model pick
62%
Fair odds 1.62
Hamburg
17%
Fair odds 5.72
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Werder Bremen | Draw | Hamburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen are rated 45 points above Hamburg (1485 to 1440), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Werder Bremen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Werder Bremen's chance of winning and takes the same from Hamburg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Werder Bremen
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.1. Werder Bremen score 1.4 a match against an average side (8th in Bundesliga); Hamburg concede 1.6 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen WWDDW, gained 29 rating points; Hamburg LLWWW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Werder Bremen won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Werder BremenHamburgWerder Bremen
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
17 conceded
05/09
05/16
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/24
10/31
Hamburg
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
22 conceded
05/10
05/16
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Werder Bremen | Draw | Hamburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 34%2.92 | 3%32.79 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.42 | 11%9.13 | 6%17.99 |
| Hamburg | 5%18.21 | 6%17.06 | 11%8.75 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Werder Bremen wins2Hamburg wins- W Werder Bremen vs Hamburg 3-1
- L Hamburg vs Werder Bremen 3-2
- W Hamburg vs Werder Bremen 2-3
- L Werder Bremen vs Hamburg 0-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Werder Bremen's side.