Cove Rangers
24%
Fair odds 4.11Bookmakers 22%
Hamilton
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.02Bookmakers 54%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cove Rangers | Draw | Hamilton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Elo model | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Best price on offer | 4.40 | 3.90 | 1.73 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hamilton
Hamilton are rated 147 points above Cove Rangers (1305 to 1158), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cove Rangers
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Cove Rangers's chance of winning and takes the same from Hamilton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hamilton
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.6. Cove Rangers score 0.6 a match against an average side (8th in Scottish League One); Hamilton concede 1.8 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hamilton
Cove Rangers WLDLL, lost 16 rating points; Hamilton DDWWW, gained 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Hamilton
Bookmakers rate Hamilton higher than the model does: Cove Rangers 22% against the model's 24%, Hamilton 54% against 50%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Hamilton
Cove Rangers won 3, drew 5 and lost 5 of the last 13 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Cove RangersHamiltonCove Rangers
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
16 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
10/03
10/10
10/17
Hamilton
5/10 over 2.5
17 scored
6 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 55%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cove Rangers | Draw | Hamilton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cove Rangers | 15%6.67 | 5%18.55 | 3%34.01 |
| Level | 9%11.60 | 16%6.41 | 18%5.58 |
| Hamilton | 1%85.47 | 4%24.04 | 29%3.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Cove Rangers wins5Hamilton wins- L Hamilton vs Cove Rangers 1-0
- D Cove Rangers vs Hamilton 2-2
- L Hamilton vs Cove Rangers 2-0
- W Cove Rangers vs Hamilton 2-1
- D Hamilton vs Cove Rangers 0-0
- L Cove Rangers vs Hamilton 1-3
- L Hamilton vs Cove Rangers 2-0
- W Cove Rangers vs Hamilton 1-0
- L Hamilton vs Cove Rangers 1-0
- D Hamilton vs Cove Rangers 1-1
13 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cove Rangers's side.