Heidenheim
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.79Bookmakers 45%
Hannover
22%
Fair odds 4.61Bookmakers 30%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Heidenheim: 56% here, 45% with bookmakers; Hannover: 22% here, 30% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Heidenheim | Draw | Hannover | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Best price on offer | 2.10 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Heidenheim
Heidenheim are rated 25 points above Hannover (1401 to 1376), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Heidenheim
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Heidenheim's chance of winning and takes the same from Hannover's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Heidenheim
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.2. Heidenheim score 1.2 a match against an average side (4th in 2. Bundesliga); Hannover concede 1.8 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Heidenheim LDLDD, lost 22 rating points; Hannover WLDLW, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Hannover
Bookmakers rate Hannover higher than the model does: Heidenheim 45% against the model's 56%, Hannover 30% against 22%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Heidenheim
Heidenheim won 3, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HeidenheimHannoverHeidenheim
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
18 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/17
10/24
10/31
Hannover
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
16 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 65%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Heidenheim | Draw | Hannover |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim | 34%2.96 | 4%23.81 | 1%71.43 |
| Level | 19%5.34 | 12%8.36 | 8%13.19 |
| Hannover | 4%25.38 | 5%18.87 | 13%7.63 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Heidenheim wins1Hannover wins- W Hannover vs Heidenheim 0-3
- W Heidenheim vs Hannover 2-1
- W Heidenheim vs Hannover 3-1
- L Hannover vs Heidenheim 1-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Heidenheim's side.