Besiktas
Model pick
77%
Fair odds 1.31Bookmakers 74%
Hapoel Be'er
9%
Fair odds 11.60Bookmakers 10%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Besiktas | Draw | Hapoel Be'er | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 77% | 15% | 9% |
| Elo model | 74% | 19% | 7% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 74% | 15% | 10% |
| Best price on offer | 1.28 | 6.56 | 10.90 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Besiktas
Besiktas are rated 218 points above Hapoel Be'er (1596 to 1379), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Besiktas
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Besiktas's chance of winning and takes the same from Hapoel Be'er's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Besiktas
Expected goals 2.7 to 0.8. Besiktas score 1.7 a match against an average side (2nd in Süper Lig); Hapoel Be'er concede 1.6.
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hapoel Be'er
Besiktas LDWDL, lost 11 rating points; Hapoel Be'er LLLDW, gained 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Besiktas 74%, Hapoel Be'er 10%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BesiktasHapoel Be'erBesiktas
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
16 conceded
09/11
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/26
11/01
11/05
Hapoel Be'er
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
13 conceded
09/08
09/15
10/06
10/13
10/27
11/03
09/16
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Besiktas | Draw | Hapoel Be'er |
|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | 44%2.28 | 2%57.14 | 0%— |
| Level | 26%3.78 | 8%12.82 | 3%39.53 |
| Hapoel Be'er | 7%15.34 | 5%21.37 | 6%16.58 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.