LASK
Model pick
70%
Fair odds 1.44
Hartberg
13%
Fair odds 7.71
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| LASK | Draw | Hartberg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours LASK
LASK are rated 95 points above Hartberg (1463 to 1368), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours LASK
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to LASK's chance of winning and takes the same from Hartberg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours LASK
Expected goals 2.5 to 1.0. LASK score 1.4 a match against an average side (1st in Austrian Bundesliga); Hartberg concede 1.9 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
LASK WWLWW, gained 25 rating points; Hartberg WWLWD, gained 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
LASK won 4, drew 12 and lost 3 of the last 19 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LASKHartbergLASK
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
20 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Hartberg
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
18 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/22
08/30
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 4-1
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | LASK | Draw | Hartberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| LASK | 33%2.99 | 2%58.48 | 0%— |
| Level | 28%3.62 | 8%11.98 | 3%31.35 |
| Hartberg | 9%11.06 | 7%15.13 | 10%10.31 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4LASK wins3Hartberg wins- D Hartberg vs LASK 3-3
- W Hartberg vs LASK 1-5
- D LASK vs Hartberg 0-0
- D Hartberg vs LASK 2-2
- D LASK vs Hartberg 3-3
- D LASK vs Hartberg 0-0
- W Hartberg vs LASK 0-1
- D LASK vs Hartberg 1-1
- W Hartberg vs LASK 1-2
- W Hartberg vs LASK 1-2
19 meetings in the data. Results shown from LASK's side.