Gateshead
32%
Fair odds 3.14
Hartlepool
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.41
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gateshead | Draw | Hartlepool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hartlepool
Hartlepool are rated 83 points above Gateshead (1019 to 935), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Gateshead
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Gateshead's chance of winning and takes the same from Hartlepool's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hartlepool
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.5. Gateshead score 0.4 a match against an average side (26th in National League); Hartlepool concede 3.2 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hartlepool
Gateshead LLLLL, lost 26 rating points; Hartlepool LLWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Hartlepool
Gateshead won 2, drew 0 and lost 4 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GatesheadHartlepoolGateshead
6/10 over 2.5
5 scored
26 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/31
Hartlepool
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
23 conceded
09/16
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gateshead | Draw | Hartlepool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead | 20%5.06 | 6%18.02 | 3%38.31 |
| Level | 11%9.17 | 16%6.45 | 15%6.66 |
| Hartlepool | 2%60.98 | 5%21.60 | 24%4.10 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Gateshead wins4Hartlepool wins- L Hartlepool vs Gateshead 2-1
- L Gateshead vs Hartlepool 0-1
- L Hartlepool vs Gateshead 3-2
- W Gateshead vs Hartlepool 4-3
- W Gateshead vs Hartlepool 7-1
- L Hartlepool vs Gateshead 2-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Gateshead's side.