Dundee
36%
Fair odds 2.76
Hearts
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.68
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Dundee | Draw | Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 26% | 37% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 41% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hearts
Hearts are rated 97 points above Dundee (1555 to 1458), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Dundee
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Dundee's chance of winning and takes the same from Hearts's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Dundee score 1.1 a match against an average side (6th in Scottish Premiership); Hearts concede 1.3 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Dundee
Dundee WLDWW, gained 18 rating points; Hearts LDWLL, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Hearts
Dundee won 4, drew 1 and lost 10 of the last 15 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DundeeHeartsDundee
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
12 conceded
08/08
08/22
08/30
09/02
09/06
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
Hearts
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
19 conceded
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Dundee | Draw | Hearts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee | 19%5.31 | 4%25.58 | 1%67.11 |
| Level | 15%6.78 | 15%6.71 | 11%8.90 |
| Hearts | 3%31.65 | 7%15.22 | 25%3.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Dundee wins10Hearts wins- L Hearts vs Dundee 2-1
- L Hearts vs Dundee 1-0
- L Dundee vs Hearts 0-1
- L Hearts vs Dundee 4-0
- W Hearts vs Dundee 0-1
- L Dundee vs Hearts 0-6
- L Hearts vs Dundee 2-0
- W Dundee vs Hearts 3-1
- L Hearts vs Dundee 3-0
- L Dundee vs Hearts 2-3
15 meetings in the data. Results shown from Dundee's side.