Groningen
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.36
Heerenveen
33%
Fair odds 2.99
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Groningen | Draw | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 24% | 33% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Heerenveen
Heerenveen are rated 27 points above Groningen (1528 to 1501), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Groningen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Groningen's chance of winning and takes the same from Heerenveen's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Groningen
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.5. Groningen score 1.4 a match against an average side (8th in Eredivisie); Heerenveen concede 1.3 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Heerenveen
Groningen LDLWW, barely moved; Heerenveen WWWLW, gained 37 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Groningen won 3, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GroningenHeerenveenGroningen
9/10 over 2.5
24 scored
23 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Heerenveen
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
13 conceded
08/16
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/16
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Groningen | Draw | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 28%3.60 | 6%16.47 | 3%33.67 |
| Level | 13%7.85 | 13%7.84 | 12%8.04 |
| Heerenveen | 2%43.67 | 5%22.03 | 18%5.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Groningen wins4Heerenveen wins- W Heerenveen vs Groningen 0-2
- W Groningen vs Heerenveen 2-1
- W Groningen vs Heerenveen 1-0
- L Heerenveen vs Groningen 2-1
- L Groningen vs Heerenveen 0-2
- L Heerenveen vs Groningen 3-1
- L Heerenveen vs Groningen 3-1
- D Groningen vs Heerenveen 1-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Groningen's side.