Darmstadt
29%
Fair odds 3.47
Heidenheim
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.13
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Darmstadt | Draw | Heidenheim | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| Elo model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Heidenheim
Heidenheim are rated 69 points above Darmstadt (1401 to 1332), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Darmstadt
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Darmstadt's chance of winning and takes the same from Heidenheim's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Heidenheim
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.8. Darmstadt score 0.9 a match against an average side (19th in 2. Bundesliga); Heidenheim concede 1.6 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Darmstadt DDLWL, lost 14 rating points; Heidenheim LDLDD, lost 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Heidenheim
Darmstadt won 1, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DarmstadtHeidenheimDarmstadt
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/23
10/31
Heidenheim
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
18 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Darmstadt | Draw | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt | 18%5.65 | 6%17.64 | 3%28.90 |
| Level | 10%10.21 | 13%7.65 | 16%6.10 |
| Heidenheim | 2%56.18 | 5%21.74 | 28%3.63 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Darmstadt wins4Heidenheim wins- L Darmstadt vs Heidenheim 0-1
- L Heidenheim vs Darmstadt 3-2
- L Heidenheim vs Darmstadt 1-0
- D Darmstadt vs Heidenheim 2-2
- W Darmstadt vs Heidenheim 3-2
- L Heidenheim vs Darmstadt 2-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Darmstadt's side.