Zhejiang Professional
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.89Bookmakers 46%
Henan Songshan Longmen
25%
Fair odds 3.94Bookmakers 31%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Zhejiang Professional | Draw | Henan Songshan Longmen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 46% | 22% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.00 | 4.25 | 3.00 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Zhejiang Professional
Zhejiang Professional are rated 24 points above Henan Songshan Longmen (1389 to 1365), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Zhejiang Professional
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Zhejiang Professional's chance of winning and takes the same from Henan Songshan Longmen's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Zhejiang Professional
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.4. Zhejiang Professional score 1.2 a match against an average side (5th in Chinese Super League); Henan Songshan Longmen concede 1.8 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Zhejiang Professional WLLWL, lost 7 rating points; Henan Songshan Longmen LLDDD, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Henan Songshan Longmen
Bookmakers rate Henan Songshan Longmen higher than the model does: Zhejiang Professional 46% against the model's 53%, Henan Songshan Longmen 31% against 25%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Zhejiang Professional won 3, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Zhejiang ProfessionalHenan Songshan LongmenZhejiang Professional
9/10 over 2.5
24 scored
22 conceded
07/26
08/01
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/18
10/09
10/17
10/24
Henan Songshan Longmen
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
18 conceded
07/31
08/09
08/15
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
10/09
10/16
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 3-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Zhejiang Professional | Draw | Henan Songshan Longmen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zhejiang Professional | 29%3.40 | 4%23.47 | 2%52.91 |
| Level | 19%5.20 | 11%9.14 | 9%11.15 |
| Henan Songshan Longmen | 5%20.49 | 6%17.73 | 15%6.74 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Zhejiang Professional wins3Henan Songshan Longmen wins- W Henan Songshan Longmen vs Zhejiang Professional 0-2
- D Henan Songshan Longmen vs Zhejiang Professional 2-2
- D Zhejiang Professional vs Henan Songshan Longmen 2-2
- L Henan Songshan Longmen vs Zhejiang Professional 2-1
- W Zhejiang Professional vs Henan Songshan Longmen 4-1
- W Zhejiang Professional vs Henan Songshan Longmen 3-0
- D Henan Songshan Longmen vs Zhejiang Professional 2-2
- L Zhejiang Professional vs Henan Songshan Longmen 0-1
- L Henan Songshan Longmen vs Zhejiang Professional 3-1
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Zhejiang Professional's side.