Cottbus
32%
Fair odds 3.14
Hertha
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.29
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cottbus | Draw | Hertha | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hertha
Hertha are rated 96 points above Cottbus (1441 to 1346), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cottbus
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cottbus's chance of winning and takes the same from Hertha's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hertha
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.7. Cottbus score 1.0 a match against an average side (8th in 2. Bundesliga); Hertha concede 1.4 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hertha
Cottbus LDDLD, lost 16 rating points; Hertha WWDWW, gained 29 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CottbusHerthaCottbus
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
20 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/16
10/24
10/30
Hertha
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
8 conceded
08/07
08/15
08/28
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cottbus | Draw | Hertha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cottbus | 20%5.01 | 6%16.50 | 4%27.03 |
| Level | 11%9.51 | 13%7.64 | 16%6.14 |
| Hertha | 2%54.64 | 4%22.73 | 24%4.14 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.