Aberdeen
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.47Bookmakers 38%
Hibernian
32%
Fair odds 3.14Bookmakers 35%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Aberdeen | Draw | Hibernian | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 28% | 32% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Best price on offer | 2.50 | 3.55 | 2.75 |
Team news
- Nathan Lowe Out
- Rocky Bushiri Out
- Jordan Obita Out
- Kanayochukwu Megwa Out
- Callum Wright Out
- Grant Hanley Doubtful
Hibs were not expected to be at full fitness after the Hearts win, and Nathan Lowe was reported as part of the matchday squad despite being unavailable to start, per one report.
No absences reported
Stephen Robinson is reported to be making several changes from the League Cup semi-final lineup, with Chris Cadden, Stuart Armstrong and Lewis Smith among those in line to start.
Allowing for this news: Aberdeen 40%, draw 27%, Hibernian 33% (xG 1.39 – 1.24). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, hibsobserver.co.uk, edinburghnews.scotsman.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hibernian
Hibernian are rated 59 points above Aberdeen (1480 to 1421), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Aberdeen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Aberdeen's chance of winning and takes the same from Hibernian's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Aberdeen
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Aberdeen score 1.0 a match against an average side (11th in Scottish Premiership); Hibernian concede 1.5 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Aberdeen
Aberdeen LLWLD, lost 9 rating points; Hibernian DLLLD, lost 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Hibernian
Bookmakers rate Hibernian higher than the model does: Aberdeen 38% against the model's 41%, Hibernian 35% against 32%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Hibernian
Aberdeen won 6, drew 5 and lost 9 of the last 20 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AberdeenHibernianAberdeen
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
13 conceded
08/08
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
Hibernian
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
15 conceded
08/09
08/30
09/03
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 54%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Aberdeen | Draw | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 23%4.29 | 4%22.88 | 1%69.44 |
| Level | 15%6.56 | 16%6.09 | 11%9.29 |
| Hibernian | 3%39.22 | 6%17.61 | 20%4.95 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Aberdeen wins9Hibernian wins- D Hibernian vs Aberdeen 1-1
- W Aberdeen vs Hibernian 2-0
- L Hibernian vs Aberdeen 2-0
- L Aberdeen vs Hibernian 1-2
- W Aberdeen vs Hibernian 1-0
- L Hibernian vs Aberdeen 2-0
- L Aberdeen vs Hibernian 1-3
- D Hibernian vs Aberdeen 3-3
- W Hibernian vs Aberdeen 0-4
- D Aberdeen vs Hibernian 2-2
20 meetings in the data. Results shown from Aberdeen's side.