Ein Frankfurt
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.50
Hoffenheim
37%
Fair odds 2.73
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ein Frankfurt | Draw | Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 23% | 37% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim are rated 22 points above Ein Frankfurt (1511 to 1489), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ein Frankfurt
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Ein Frankfurt's chance of winning and takes the same from Hoffenheim's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.7. Ein Frankfurt score 1.4 a match against an average side (9th in Bundesliga); Hoffenheim concede 1.3 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hoffenheim
Ein Frankfurt WLWLD, barely moved; Hoffenheim DLWWW, gained 33 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Ein Frankfurt
Ein Frankfurt won 5, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Ein FrankfurtHoffenheimEin Frankfurt
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
23 conceded
05/08
05/16
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/24
11/01
Hoffenheim
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ein Frankfurt | Draw | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ein Frankfurt | 25%3.97 | 6%17.06 | 3%30.67 |
| Level | 13%7.94 | 12%8.40 | 13%7.66 |
| Hoffenheim | 3%38.02 | 5%20.62 | 21%4.84 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Ein Frankfurt wins3Hoffenheim wins- L Ein Frankfurt vs Hoffenheim 1-3
- W Hoffenheim vs Ein Frankfurt 1-3
- D Hoffenheim vs Ein Frankfurt 2-2
- W Ein Frankfurt vs Hoffenheim 3-1
- W Ein Frankfurt vs Hoffenheim 3-1
- W Hoffenheim vs Ein Frankfurt 1-3
- L Hoffenheim vs Ein Frankfurt 3-1
- W Ein Frankfurt vs Hoffenheim 4-2
- D Ein Frankfurt vs Hoffenheim 2-2
- L Hoffenheim vs Ein Frankfurt 3-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Ein Frankfurt's side.