Wolfsburg
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.53
Holstein Kiel
15%
Fair odds 6.76
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Wolfsburg | Draw | Holstein Kiel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg are rated 130 points above Holstein Kiel (1470 to 1340), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Wolfsburg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Wolfsburg's chance of winning and takes the same from Holstein Kiel's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Wolfsburg
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.0. Wolfsburg score 1.4 a match against an average side (1st in 2. Bundesliga); Holstein Kiel concede 1.7 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg WDWDW, gained 18 rating points; Holstein Kiel LWDLD, lost 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
WolfsburgHolstein KielWolfsburg
5/10 over 2.5
25 scored
14 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/17
10/23
10/31
Holstein Kiel
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
12 conceded
08/08
08/14
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/16
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Wolfsburg | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg | 43%2.34 | 4%25.64 | 1%94.34 |
| Level | 20%5.08 | 11%9.09 | 6%17.54 |
| Holstein Kiel | 3%28.90 | 4%23.98 | 8%11.93 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Wolfsburg wins0Holstein Kiel wins- D Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel 2-2
- W Holstein Kiel vs Wolfsburg 0-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Wolfsburg's side.