Aarhus
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.84Bookmakers 59%
Horsens
22%
Fair odds 4.56Bookmakers 19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Aarhus | Draw | Horsens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 60% | 25% | 16% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Best price on offer | 1.60 | 4.30 | 5.25 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Aarhus
Aarhus are rated 99 points above Horsens (1402 to 1303), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Aarhus
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Aarhus's chance of winning and takes the same from Horsens's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Aarhus
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.1. Aarhus score 1.0 a match against an average side (6th in Danish Superliga); Horsens concede 2.0 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Aarhus DLWDD, barely moved; Horsens LWDDD, gained 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Horsens
Aarhus will have had 3 days' rest, Horsens 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Aarhus
Bookmakers rate Aarhus higher than the model does: Aarhus 59% against the model's 54%, Horsens 19% against 22%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Aarhus won 1, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AarhusHorsensAarhus
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Horsens
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
16 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/28
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Aarhus | Draw | Horsens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus | 31%3.20 | 3%29.15 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.13 | 13%7.64 | 7%15.27 |
| Horsens | 4%23.47 | 6%16.10 | 15%6.72 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Aarhus wins1Horsens wins- D Horsens vs Aarhus 2-2
- W Aarhus vs Horsens 2-0
- L Horsens vs Aarhus 2-1
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from Aarhus's side.