Doncaster
21%
Fair odds 4.82
Huddersfield
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.80
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Doncaster | Draw | Huddersfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 21% | 24% | 56% |
| Elo model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Huddersfield
Huddersfield are rated 131 points above Doncaster (1417 to 1286), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Doncaster
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Doncaster's chance of winning and takes the same from Huddersfield's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Huddersfield
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.9. Doncaster score 0.8 a match against an average side (21st in League One); Huddersfield concede 1.3 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Huddersfield
Doncaster LLWLL, lost 23 rating points; Huddersfield DWWWW, gained 39 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
DoncasterHuddersfieldDoncaster
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
18 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Huddersfield
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-3
- 0-0
- 0-3
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Doncaster | Draw | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster | 13%7.70 | 6%16.81 | 5%21.60 |
| Level | 7%13.76 | 13%7.42 | 23%4.44 |
| Huddersfield | 1%— | 3%30.12 | 29%3.46 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Doncaster wins1Huddersfield wins- W Doncaster vs Huddersfield 1-0
- L Huddersfield vs Doncaster 2-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Doncaster's side.