Wycombe
31%
Fair odds 3.21
Huddersfield
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.31
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Wycombe | Draw | Huddersfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Huddersfield
Huddersfield are rated 61 points above Wycombe (1417 to 1356), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Wycombe
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Wycombe's chance of winning and takes the same from Huddersfield's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Huddersfield
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.6. Wycombe score 0.9 a match against an average side (9th in League One); Huddersfield concede 1.3 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Huddersfield
Wycombe WDDWL, barely moved; Huddersfield DWWWW, gained 39 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Wycombe won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
WycombeHuddersfieldWycombe
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
16 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Huddersfield
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Wycombe | Draw | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wycombe | 19%5.15 | 6%15.97 | 4%26.46 |
| Level | 11%9.40 | 14%6.98 | 18%5.62 |
| Huddersfield | 2%64.94 | 4%24.94 | 22%4.50 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Wycombe wins1Huddersfield wins- D Huddersfield vs Wycombe 3-3
- W Wycombe vs Huddersfield 3-0
- W Huddersfield vs Wycombe 0-1
- L Wycombe vs Huddersfield 0-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Wycombe's side.