Arsenal
Model pick
74%
Fair odds 1.35Bookmakers 82%
Hull
8%
Fair odds 12.29Bookmakers 6%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Arsenal | Draw | Hull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| Elo model | 80% | 16% | 4% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 82% | 13% | 6% |
| Best price on offer | 1.18 | 8.00 | 21.00 |
Team news
- Bukayo Saka Out
- Max Dowman Out
- Ezri Konsa Doubtful
William Saliba (back) is back in the matchday squad after a long absence and is expected to be available, likely from the bench, so he is not listed as an absence.
- Eliot Matazo Out
- Matt Targett Out
- Lucas Gourna-Douath Doubtful
- Ilyas Ansah Out
- Darko Gyabi Out
- Charlie Hughes Out
- Matt Crooks Out
- Hidemasa Morita Out
- Jack Butland Doubtful
Hull have a long injury list; Jakirovic's squad remains subject to final checks.
Allowing for this news: Arsenal 76%, draw 17%, Hull 7% (xG 2.33 – 0.59). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: squawka.com, dave.sport, soccernews.com, thesportsbank.net
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Arsenal
Arsenal are rated 276 points above Hull (1772 to 1496), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Arsenal
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 5 points to Arsenal's chance of winning and takes the same from Hull's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Arsenal
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.6. Arsenal score 1.8 a match against an average side (6th in Premier League); Hull concede 1.3 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Arsenal
Arsenal WWWDW, gained 18 rating points; Hull DDLDL, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Hull
Arsenal will have had 3 days' rest, Hull 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Arsenal
Bookmakers rate Arsenal higher than the model does: Arsenal 82% against the model's 74%, Hull 6% against 8%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ArsenalHullArsenal
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
7 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/18
10/21
10/24
11/01
11/04
Hull
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
11 conceded
05/02
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 62%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Arsenal | Draw | Hull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 45%2.21 | 2%53.19 | 0%— |
| Level | 26%3.92 | 11%9.23 | 3%37.45 |
| Hull | 4%24.63 | 4%24.39 | 6%18.12 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.