Argentinos Jrs
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.84Bookmakers 49%
Huracan
17%
Fair odds 5.99Bookmakers 21%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Argentinos Jrs | Draw | Huracan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Elo model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| Best price on offer | 1.95 | 3.25 | 4.75 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Argentinos Jrs
Argentinos Jrs are rated 84 points above Huracan (1434 to 1350), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Argentinos Jrs
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Argentinos Jrs's chance of winning and takes the same from Huracan's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Argentinos Jrs
Expected goals 1.4 to 0.6. Argentinos Jrs score 0.8 a match against an average side (8th in Liga Profesional); Huracan concede 1.5 (13th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Argentinos Jrs
Argentinos Jrs WWWDW, gained 20 rating points; Huracan LLLLW, lost 37 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Huracan
Argentinos Jrs will have had 4 days' rest, Huracan 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Huracan
Bookmakers rate Huracan higher than the model does: Argentinos Jrs 49% against the model's 54%, Huracan 21% against 17%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Argentinos Jrs won 1, drew 7 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Argentinos JrsHuracanArgentinos Jrs
3/10 over 2.5
11 scored
7 conceded
08/25
08/30
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/04
10/11
10/17
10/27
11/03
Huracan
3/10 over 2.5
8 scored
12 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/04
09/14
09/19
10/04
10/10
10/16
10/25
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 3-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Argentinos Jrs | Draw | Huracan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentinos Jrs | 35%2.87 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 17%5.94 | 21%4.71 | 1%93.46 |
| Huracan | 2%44.64 | 6%15.62 | 17%5.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Argentinos Jrs wins2Huracan wins- D Argentinos Jrs vs Huracan 0-0
- W Huracan vs Argentinos Jrs 1-2
- L Huracan vs Argentinos Jrs 1-0
- D Argentinos Jrs vs Huracan 1-1
- D Argentinos Jrs vs Huracan 0-0
- D Huracan vs Argentinos Jrs 1-1
- L Argentinos Jrs vs Huracan 1-2
- D Huracan vs Argentinos Jrs 0-0
- D Argentinos Jrs vs Huracan 1-1
- D Huracan vs Argentinos Jrs 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Argentinos Jrs's side.