Gimnasia Mendoza
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.41Bookmakers 29%
Ind. Rivadavia
32%
Fair odds 3.17Bookmakers 40%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Gimnasia Mendoza: 41% here, 29% with bookmakers; Ind. Rivadavia: 32% here, 40% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gimnasia Mendoza | Draw | Ind. Rivadavia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 29% | 30% | 40% |
| Best price on offer | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.35 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ind. Rivadavia
Ind. Rivadavia are rated 31 points above Gimnasia Mendoza (1379 to 1348), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Gimnasia Mendoza
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Gimnasia Mendoza's chance of winning and takes the same from Ind. Rivadavia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Gimnasia Mendoza
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Gimnasia Mendoza score 0.7 a match against an average side (14th in Liga Profesional); Ind. Rivadavia concede 1.7 (27th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Gimnasia Mendoza DLLWL, lost 16 rating points; Ind. Rivadavia WLDLD, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Gimnasia Mendoza
Ind. Rivadavia will have had 4 days' rest, Gimnasia Mendoza 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Ind. Rivadavia
Bookmakers rate Ind. Rivadavia higher than the model does: Gimnasia Mendoza 29% against the model's 41%, Ind. Rivadavia 40% against 32%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Gimnasia MendozaInd. RivadaviaGimnasia Mendoza
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
13 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/19
10/05
10/12
10/18
10/23
11/01
Ind. Rivadavia
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
17 conceded
08/22
08/31
09/06
09/12
09/21
10/03
10/11
10/17
10/27
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gimnasia Mendoza | Draw | Ind. Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 28%3.56 | 6%18.02 | 2%52.63 |
| Level | 12%8.20 | 16%6.32 | 11%9.02 |
| Ind. Rivadavia | 2%58.14 | 5%21.88 | 19%5.24 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Gimnasia Mendoza wins1Ind. Rivadavia wins- L Ind. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia Mendoza 5-1
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Gimnasia Mendoza's side.