Atalanta
19%
Fair odds 5.26
Inter
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.67
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Atalanta | Draw | Inter | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 19% | 21% | 60% |
| Elo model | 22% | 26% | 52% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Inter
Inter are rated 174 points above Atalanta (1697 to 1523), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Atalanta
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Atalanta's chance of winning and takes the same from Inter's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Inter
Expected goals 1.1 to 2.1. Atalanta score 1.2 a match against an average side (11th in Serie A); Inter concede 0.9 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Inter
Atalanta DLDDL, lost 40 rating points; Inter WLWWW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Inter
Atalanta won 0, drew 3 and lost 7 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AtalantaInterAtalanta
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
21 conceded
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/29
11/02
11/05
Inter
8/10 over 2.5
25 scored
14 conceded
09/14
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/28
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 2-2
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Atalanta | Draw | Inter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 13%7.49 | 7%14.90 | 6%16.10 |
| Level | 5%18.83 | 11%9.12 | 23%4.41 |
| Inter | 1%— | 3%36.63 | 31%3.19 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Atalanta wins7Inter wins- D Inter vs Atalanta 1-1
- L Atalanta vs Inter 0-1
- L Atalanta vs Inter 0-2
- L Inter vs Atalanta 4-0
- L Inter vs Atalanta 4-0
- L Atalanta vs Inter 1-2
- L Inter vs Atalanta 3-2
- L Atalanta vs Inter 2-3
- D Atalanta vs Inter 0-0
- D Inter vs Atalanta 2-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Atalanta's side.