KuPS
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.56Bookmakers 24%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. KuPS: 39% here, 24% with bookmakers; Inter Turku: 30% here, 51% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| KuPS | Draw | Inter Turku | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 30% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Best price on offer | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.84 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Inter Turku
Inter Turku are rated 20 points above KuPS (1453 to 1433), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours KuPS
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to KuPS's chance of winning and takes the same from Inter Turku's.
-
Attack against defence Favours KuPS
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.0. KuPS score 0.8 a match against an average side (5th in Veikkausliiga); Inter Turku concede 1.4 (2nd best defence).
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Last 5 matches Neutral
KuPS DLDDL, lost 25 rating points; Inter Turku WLWLW, lost 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Inter Turku
KuPS will have had 3 days' rest, Inter Turku 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Inter Turku
Bookmakers rate Inter Turku higher than the model does: KuPS 24% against the model's 39%, Inter Turku 51% against 30%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours KuPS
KuPS won 8, drew 4 and lost 4 of the last 16 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
KuPSInter TurkuKuPS
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
13 conceded
10/15
10/22
11/05
08/31
10/11
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | KuPS | Draw | Inter Turku |
|---|---|---|---|
| KuPS | 30%3.37 | 5%20.58 | 1%— |
| Level | 9%10.94 | 21%4.77 | 9%11.09 |
| Inter Turku | 1%— | 4%26.46 | 21%4.81 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
8KuPS wins- L Inter Turku vs KuPS 1-0
- L Inter Turku vs KuPS 1-0
- D KuPS vs Inter Turku 1-1
- W KuPS vs Inter Turku 3-2
- W Inter Turku vs KuPS 0-3
- W KuPS vs Inter Turku 2-1
- D Inter Turku vs KuPS 1-1
- L KuPS vs Inter Turku 1-2
- D Inter Turku vs KuPS 1-1
- W Inter Turku vs KuPS 0-1
16 meetings in the data. Results shown from KuPS's side.