Vasco
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.31
Internacional
30%
Fair odds 3.29
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Vasco | Draw | Internacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Vasco and Internacional are rated almost level (1329 and 1338).
-
Home advantage Favours Vasco
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Vasco's chance of winning and takes the same from Internacional's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Vasco
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.2. Vasco score 0.9 a match against an average side (10th in Brasileirão); Internacional concede 1.7 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Vasco LWLDW, barely moved; Internacional LWLDW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Internacional
Vasco won 2, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VascoInternacionalVasco
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/08
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/29
Internacional
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/07
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Vasco | Draw | Internacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco | 28%3.52 | 5%18.87 | 2%54.35 |
| Level | 13%7.50 | 15%6.59 | 11%9.42 |
| Internacional | 2%48.08 | 5%20.62 | 18%5.43 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Vasco wins4Internacional wins- L Internacional vs Vasco 4-1
- W Vasco vs Internacional 5-1
- D Internacional vs Vasco 1-1
- L Vasco vs Internacional 0-1
- W Internacional vs Vasco 1-2
- L Vasco vs Internacional 1-2
- L Internacional vs Vasco 2-1
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Vasco's side.