Partick
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.71
Inverness C
17%
Fair odds 5.89
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Partick | Draw | Inverness C | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Elo model | 60% | 25% | 16% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Partick
Partick are rated 98 points above Inverness C (1420 to 1322), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Partick
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Partick's chance of winning and takes the same from Inverness C's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Partick
Expected goals 1.7 to 0.8. Partick score 1.0 a match against an average side (1st in Scottish Championship); Inverness C concede 1.6 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Partick LWDWW, gained 8 rating points; Inverness C LWWLW, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Partick won 4, drew 6 and lost 3 of the last 13 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PartickInverness CPartick
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
6 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/16
10/20
10/24
10/31
Inverness C
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/25
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Partick | Draw | Inverness C |
|---|---|---|---|
| Partick | 39%2.58 | 4%22.94 | 1%99.01 |
| Level | 18%5.54 | 15%6.51 | 7%14.16 |
| Inverness C | 2%46.51 | 4%25.64 | 9%10.68 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Partick wins3Inverness C wins- D Inverness C vs Partick 1-1
- W Partick vs Inverness C 1-0
- D Inverness C vs Partick 3-3
- D Partick vs Inverness C 1-1
- D Inverness C vs Partick 0-0
- L Inverness C vs Partick 1-0
- W Partick vs Inverness C 5-1
- L Inverness C vs Partick 1-0
- W Partick vs Inverness C 4-1
- W Partick vs Inverness C 1-0
13 meetings in the data. Results shown from Partick's side.