Tottenham
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.72
Ipswich
19%
Fair odds 5.15
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Tottenham | Draw | Ipswich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Tottenham
Tottenham are rated 21 points above Ipswich (1555 to 1534), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Tottenham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Tottenham's chance of winning and takes the same from Ipswich's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Tottenham
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.1. Tottenham score 1.6 a match against an average side (9th in Premier League); Ipswich concede 1.2 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Tottenham
Tottenham WWWDL, gained 33 rating points; Ipswich DDLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
TottenhamIpswichTottenham
3/10 over 2.5
11 scored
10 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/19
10/24
10/31
Ipswich
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
18 conceded
05/02
08/22
08/30
09/04
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Tottenham | Draw | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 32%3.13 | 3%30.58 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.59 | 12%8.03 | 6%15.75 |
| Ipswich | 5%21.01 | 6%16.86 | 13%7.94 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Tottenham wins1Ipswich wins- W Ipswich vs Tottenham 1-4
- L Tottenham vs Ipswich 1-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Tottenham's side.