Olympiakos
Model pick
75%
Fair odds 1.34
Iraklis
8%
Fair odds 12.63
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Olympiakos | Draw | Iraklis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| Elo model | 72% | 20% | 8% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Olympiakos
Olympiakos are rated 201 points above Iraklis (1554 to 1354), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Olympiakos
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Olympiakos's chance of winning and takes the same from Iraklis's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Olympiakos
Expected goals 2.3 to 0.6. Olympiakos score 1.2 a match against an average side (3rd in Greek Super League); Iraklis concede 1.9 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Olympiakos
Olympiakos DWWWW, gained 22 rating points; Iraklis DLLWD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
OlympiakosIraklisOlympiakos
3/10 over 2.5
16 scored
4 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/04
Iraklis
3/9 over 2.5
10 scored
12 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Olympiakos | Draw | Iraklis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos | 47%2.13 | 2%49.02 | 0%— |
| Level | 25%4.07 | 11%9.29 | 3%36.10 |
| Iraklis | 4%27.32 | 4%26.53 | 5%19.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.