Sunderland
Model pick
66%
Fair odds 1.52Bookmakers 71%
Jagiellonia
13%
Fair odds 7.51Bookmakers 11%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sunderland | Draw | Jagiellonia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Elo model | 60% | 25% | 16% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Best price on offer | 1.33 | 5.52 | 10.30 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sunderland
Sunderland are rated 98 points above Jagiellonia (1499 to 1401), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sunderland
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Sunderland's chance of winning and takes the same from Jagiellonia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sunderland
Expected goals 2.0 to 0.8. Sunderland score 1.2 a match against an average side (20th in Premier League); Jagiellonia concede 1.8 (9th best defence in Ekstraklasa).
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Last 5 matches Favours Jagiellonia
Sunderland LLDDL, lost 29 rating points; Jagiellonia LWWLL, lost 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Sunderland
Bookmakers rate Sunderland higher than the model does: Sunderland 71% against the model's 66%, Jagiellonia 11% against 13%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SunderlandJagielloniaSunderland
3/10 over 2.5
8 scored
18 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Jagiellonia
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
17 conceded
09/16
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 56%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sunderland | Draw | Jagiellonia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 31%3.28 | 1%68.49 | 0%— |
| Level | 28%3.51 | 11%8.72 | 3%33.44 |
| Jagiellonia | 7%13.74 | 7%14.06 | 10%9.52 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.