Modena
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 1.99
Juve Stabia
24%
Fair odds 4.25
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Modena | Draw | Juve Stabia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Modena
Modena are rated 41 points above Juve Stabia (1401 to 1360), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Modena
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Modena's chance of winning and takes the same from Juve Stabia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Modena
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.0. Modena score 1.1 a match against an average side (6th in Serie B); Juve Stabia concede 1.5 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Modena DWWLW, gained 10 rating points; Juve Stabia DLWWD, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Modena
Modena won 3, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ModenaJuve StabiaModena
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Juve Stabia
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
11 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Modena | Draw | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modena | 30%3.37 | 4%23.75 | 1%84.75 |
| Level | 18%5.49 | 16%6.29 | 9%11.45 |
| Juve Stabia | 3%35.46 | 5%19.34 | 14%7.08 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Modena wins1Juve Stabia wins- W Juve Stabia vs Modena 1-2
- W Modena vs Juve Stabia 3-0
- L Juve Stabia vs Modena 2-1
- W Modena vs Juve Stabia 3-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Modena's side.