Fiorentina
25%
Fair odds 4.01Bookmakers 28%
Juventus
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.98Bookmakers 46%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Fiorentina | Draw | Juventus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 25% | 25% | 51% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 28% | 27% | 46% |
| Best price on offer | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Juventus
Juventus are rated 115 points above Fiorentina (1606 to 1491), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Fiorentina
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Fiorentina's chance of winning and takes the same from Juventus's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Juventus
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.8. Fiorentina score 1.3 a match against an average side (9th in Serie A); Juventus concede 0.9 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Fiorentina WDLLL, barely moved; Juventus WWLWD, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Fiorentina
Juventus will have had 3 days' rest, Fiorentina 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Fiorentina
Bookmakers rate Fiorentina higher than the model does: Fiorentina 28% against the model's 25%, Juventus 46% against 51%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Fiorentina won 3, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FiorentinaJuventusFiorentina
9/10 over 2.5
15 scored
23 conceded
08/24
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/02
Juventus
5/10 over 2.5
18 scored
10 conceded
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 53%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Fiorentina | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 14%7.03 | 5%19.16 | 3%29.41 |
| Level | 10%10.45 | 14%7.20 | 19%5.36 |
| Juventus | 2%62.50 | 4%22.37 | 29%3.45 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Fiorentina wins4Juventus wins- W Juventus vs Fiorentina 0-2
- D Fiorentina vs Juventus 1-1
- W Fiorentina vs Juventus 3-0
- D Juventus vs Fiorentina 2-2
- L Juventus vs Fiorentina 1-0
- L Fiorentina vs Juventus 0-1
- L Juventus vs Fiorentina 1-0
- D Fiorentina vs Juventus 1-1
- W Fiorentina vs Juventus 2-0
- L Juventus vs Fiorentina 1-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Fiorentina's side.