Viking
Model pick
83%
Fair odds 1.20Bookmakers 76%
KFUM Oslo
6%
Fair odds 17.39Bookmakers 10%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Viking | Draw | KFUM Oslo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| Elo model | 75% | 19% | 7% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Best price on offer | 1.24 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Viking
Viking are rated 224 points above KFUM Oslo (1561 to 1336), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Viking
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Viking's chance of winning and takes the same from KFUM Oslo's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Viking
Expected goals 3.2 to 0.8. Viking score 1.8 a match against an average side (1st in Eliteserien); KFUM Oslo concede 1.9 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours KFUM Oslo
Viking WLWLW, barely moved; KFUM Oslo DDDWW, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours KFUM Oslo
Viking will have had 4 days' rest, KFUM Oslo 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours KFUM Oslo
Bookmakers rate KFUM Oslo higher than the model does: Viking 76% against the model's 83%, KFUM Oslo 10% against 6%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Viking
Viking won 4, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VikingKFUM OsloViking
9/10 over 2.5
30 scored
17 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/04
KFUM Oslo
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
15 conceded
08/07
08/15
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/12
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 2-1
- 4-1
- 1-0
- 5-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Viking | Draw | KFUM Oslo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viking | 35%2.85 | 0%— | 0%— |
| Level | 34%2.94 | 4%23.20 | 1%— |
| KFUM Oslo | 15%6.89 | 6%17.54 | 5%19.46 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Viking wins0KFUM Oslo wins- W KFUM Oslo vs Viking 0-2
- D KFUM Oslo vs Viking 2-2
- W Viking vs KFUM Oslo 3-1
- W Viking vs KFUM Oslo 1-0
- W KFUM Oslo vs Viking 1-2
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Viking's side.