Osnabruck
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.62Bookmakers 36%
Kaiserslautern
36%
Fair odds 2.77Bookmakers 38%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Osnabruck | Draw | Kaiserslautern | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Best price on offer | 2.65 | 3.75 | 2.46 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Kaiserslautern
Kaiserslautern are rated 95 points above Osnabruck (1379 to 1284), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Osnabruck
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Osnabruck's chance of winning and takes the same from Kaiserslautern's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.4. Osnabruck score 0.9 a match against an average side (16th in 2. Bundesliga); Kaiserslautern concede 1.7 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Osnabruck LWLDD, gained 8 rating points; Kaiserslautern LWWDW, gained 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Kaiserslautern
Bookmakers rate Kaiserslautern higher than the model does: Osnabruck 36% against the model's 38%, Kaiserslautern 38% against 36%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
OsnabruckKaiserslauternOsnabruck
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
17 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/28
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Kaiserslautern
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
7 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 57%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Osnabruck | Draw | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osnabruck | 23%4.34 | 5%19.27 | 2%43.86 |
| Level | 13%7.55 | 14%6.99 | 13%7.96 |
| Kaiserslautern | 2%41.32 | 5%19.05 | 22%4.60 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Osnabruck wins1Kaiserslautern wins- L Kaiserslautern vs Osnabruck 3-2
- D Osnabruck vs Kaiserslautern 2-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Osnabruck's side.