Asteras Tripolis
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.36Bookmakers 46%
Kalamata
31%
Fair odds 3.19Bookmakers 26%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Asteras Tripolis | Draw | Kalamata | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 26% | 31% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Best price on offer | 2.05 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Kalamata
Kalamata are rated 58 points above Asteras Tripolis (1353 to 1296), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Asteras Tripolis
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Asteras Tripolis's chance of winning and takes the same from Kalamata's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Asteras Tripolis
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.3. Asteras Tripolis score 0.8 a match against an average side (12th in Greek Super League); Kalamata concede 2.0 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Asteras Tripolis LDLWD, barely moved; Kalamata DLWWL, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Asteras Tripolis
Bookmakers rate Asteras Tripolis higher than the model does: Asteras Tripolis 46% against the model's 42%, Kalamata 26% against 31%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Asteras TripolisKalamataAsteras Tripolis
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
18 conceded
05/21
08/23
08/30
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/24
11/01
Kalamata
5/9 over 2.5
14 scored
18 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 47%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Asteras Tripolis | Draw | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis | 25%4.06 | 5%20.58 | 2%52.91 |
| Level | 16%6.42 | 15%6.62 | 12%8.61 |
| Kalamata | 3%37.31 | 5%18.94 | 18%5.45 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.