Orgryte
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.87
Kalmar
22%
Fair odds 4.48
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Orgryte | Draw | Kalmar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Orgryte
Orgryte are rated 20 points above Kalmar (1291 to 1271), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Orgryte
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Orgryte's chance of winning and takes the same from Kalmar's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Orgryte
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Orgryte score 0.8 a match against an average side (12th in Allsvenskan); Kalmar concede 2.2 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Orgryte LLDWL, barely moved; Kalmar DLLWL, lost 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
OrgryteKalmarOrgryte
7/10 over 2.5
12 scored
20 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/29
11/01
Kalmar
3/10 over 2.5
2 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/19
10/24
10/29
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Orgryte | Draw | Kalmar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orgryte | 31%3.21 | 3%28.90 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.31 | 14%7.30 | 7%15.20 |
| Kalmar | 4%25.64 | 6%16.21 | 15%6.54 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Orgryte wins1Kalmar wins- L Kalmar vs Orgryte 3-0
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Orgryte's side.