Bochum
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.89Bookmakers 51%
Karlsruhe
24%
Fair odds 4.18Bookmakers 25%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bochum | Draw | Karlsruhe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Best price on offer | 1.85 | 4.20 | 3.90 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Bochum
Bochum are rated 33 points above Karlsruhe (1356 to 1323), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bochum
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bochum's chance of winning and takes the same from Karlsruhe's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bochum
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.2. Bochum score 1.0 a match against an average side (12th in 2. Bundesliga); Karlsruhe concede 2.0 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Bochum WDLLL, lost 12 rating points; Karlsruhe WLWLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Bochum 51%, Karlsruhe 25%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BochumKarlsruheBochum
3/10 over 2.5
8 scored
11 conceded
08/07
08/14
08/28
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/23
10/30
Karlsruhe
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
21 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/29
09/04
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 61%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bochum | Draw | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum | 34%2.99 | 5%20.33 | 2%55.87 |
| Level | 17%5.99 | 13%7.97 | 9%11.29 |
| Karlsruhe | 3%31.95 | 5%20.62 | 14%7.29 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Bochum wins0Karlsruhe wins- W Karlsruhe vs Bochum 1-2
- D Bochum vs Karlsruhe 2-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bochum's side.