FC Tokyo
Model pick
61%
Fair odds 1.63Bookmakers 46%
Kashima Antlers
17%
Fair odds 5.88Bookmakers 28%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. FC Tokyo: 61% here, 46% with bookmakers; Kashima Antlers: 17% here, 28% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| FC Tokyo | Draw | Kashima Antlers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Best price on offer | 2.06 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kashima Antlers
Kashima Antlers are rated 12 points above FC Tokyo (1449 to 1437), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours FC Tokyo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to FC Tokyo's chance of winning and takes the same from Kashima Antlers's.
-
Attack against defence Favours FC Tokyo
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.0. FC Tokyo score 1.3 a match against an average side (1st in J1 League); Kashima Antlers concede 1.6 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo WWDWW, gained 47 rating points; Kashima Antlers WLDWW, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Kashima Antlers
Bookmakers rate Kashima Antlers higher than the model does: FC Tokyo 46% against the model's 61%, Kashima Antlers 28% against 17%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Kashima Antlers
FC Tokyo won 3, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FC TokyoKashima AntlersFC Tokyo
5/10 over 2.5
26 scored
1 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Kashima Antlers
6/10 over 2.5
20 scored
16 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/11
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | FC Tokyo | Draw | Kashima Antlers |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 33%3.05 | 2%43.10 | 0%— |
| Level | 23%4.31 | 12%8.59 | 4%23.42 |
| Kashima Antlers | 6%16.95 | 7%14.68 | 13%7.91 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3FC Tokyo wins5Kashima Antlers wins- L FC Tokyo vs Kashima Antlers 0-1
- L Kashima Antlers vs FC Tokyo 2-0
- L Kashima Antlers vs FC Tokyo 2-1
- W FC Tokyo vs Kashima Antlers 2-0
- L FC Tokyo vs Kashima Antlers 1-3
- D Kashima Antlers vs FC Tokyo 1-1
- W Kashima Antlers vs FC Tokyo 0-1
- W FC Tokyo vs Kashima Antlers 3-1
- L FC Tokyo vs Kashima Antlers 1-2
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from FC Tokyo's side.