Gaziantep
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.49Bookmakers 37%
Kasimpasa
33%
Fair odds 3.01Bookmakers 35%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gaziantep | Draw | Kasimpasa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Elo model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 37% | 27% | 35% |
| Best price on offer | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
Team news
- Kacper Tobiasz Out
- Fuat Bavuk Out
- Sontje Hansen Out
- Nazım Sangaré Out
- Myenty Abena Out
- Ulrich Meleke Out
- Ogün Özçiçek Out
- Serdar Dursun Out
- Arda Kızıldağ Doubtful
Gaziantep's own pre-match statement names four unavailable players; other outlets list a wider injury group, and the wider group's status is not fully confirmed by club sources.
- Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi Out
- Fousseni Diabaté Out
- Kevin Mouanga Out
- Godfried Frimpong Out
Mortadha Ben Ouanes and Baldursson were also listed as injured by one recent outlet each; no suspensions reported for Kasımpaşa.
Allowing for this news: Gaziantep 38%, draw 27%, Kasimpasa 36% (xG 1.39 – 1.35). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date.
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kasimpasa
Kasimpasa are rated 72 points above Gaziantep (1506 to 1434), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Gaziantep
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Gaziantep's chance of winning and takes the same from Kasimpasa's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Gaziantep
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.3. Gaziantep score 1.2 a match against an average side (11th in Süper Lig); Kasimpasa concede 1.2 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Kasimpasa
Gaziantep LLLLL, lost 42 rating points; Kasimpasa DWWLD, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Kasimpasa
Bookmakers rate Kasimpasa higher than the model does: Gaziantep 37% against the model's 40%, Kasimpasa 35% against 33%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Gaziantep won 4, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GaziantepKasimpasaGaziantep
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
17 conceded
08/15
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/14
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Kasimpasa
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
11 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/09
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 52%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gaziantep | Draw | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep | 26%3.85 | 6%16.72 | 3%38.91 |
| Level | 13%7.78 | 15%6.54 | 13%7.52 |
| Kasimpasa | 2%55.25 | 4%23.26 | 18%5.59 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Gaziantep wins4Kasimpasa wins- W Gaziantep vs Kasimpasa 2-1
- W Kasimpasa vs Gaziantep 2-3
- D Gaziantep vs Kasimpasa 2-2
- D Kasimpasa vs Gaziantep 2-2
- W Gaziantep vs Kasimpasa 2-0
- L Kasimpasa vs Gaziantep 4-2
- L Gaziantep vs Kasimpasa 0-3
- L Kasimpasa vs Gaziantep 1-0
- L Kasimpasa vs Gaziantep 2-1
- W Gaziantep vs Kasimpasa 2-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Gaziantep's side.