Rizespor
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.16
Kasimpasa
28%
Fair odds 3.57
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Rizespor | Draw | Kasimpasa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kasimpasa
Kasimpasa are rated 22 points above Rizespor (1506 to 1483), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Rizespor
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Rizespor's chance of winning and takes the same from Kasimpasa's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Rizespor
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Rizespor score 1.3 a match against an average side (9th in Süper Lig); Kasimpasa concede 1.2 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Kasimpasa
Rizespor DLLLD, lost 17 rating points; Kasimpasa DWWLD, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Kasimpasa
Rizespor won 2, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RizesporKasimpasaRizespor
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
15 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/07
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/16
10/26
10/31
Kasimpasa
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
11 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/09
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Rizespor | Draw | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | 29%3.40 | 6%17.92 | 2%45.45 |
| Level | 15%6.57 | 15%6.82 | 11%8.73 |
| Kasimpasa | 2%44.05 | 4%22.68 | 15%6.74 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Rizespor wins4Kasimpasa wins- W Kasimpasa vs Rizespor 0-3
- L Rizespor vs Kasimpasa 1-2
- L Kasimpasa vs Rizespor 3-2
- L Rizespor vs Kasimpasa 0-1
- D Rizespor vs Kasimpasa 0-0
- D Kasimpasa vs Rizespor 2-2
- L Kasimpasa vs Rizespor 3-1
- W Rizespor vs Kasimpasa 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Rizespor's side.