Kashiwa Reysol
Model pick
68%
Fair odds 1.48Bookmakers 43%
Kawasaki Frontale
15%
Fair odds 6.62Bookmakers 32%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Kashiwa Reysol: 68% here, 43% with bookmakers; Kawasaki Frontale: 15% here, 32% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kashiwa Reysol | Draw | Kawasaki Frontale | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 68% | 17% | 15% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Best price on offer | 2.20 | 3.90 | 3.00 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol are rated 56 points above Kawasaki Frontale (1453 to 1397), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kashiwa Reysol
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kashiwa Reysol's chance of winning and takes the same from Kawasaki Frontale's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kashiwa Reysol
Expected goals 2.7 to 1.2. Kashiwa Reysol score 1.2 a match against an average side (2nd in J1 League); Kawasaki Frontale concede 2.1 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Kashiwa Reysol WWDLW, gained 10 rating points; Kawasaki Frontale LWWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Kawasaki Frontale
Bookmakers rate Kawasaki Frontale higher than the model does: Kashiwa Reysol 43% against the model's 68%, Kawasaki Frontale 32% against 15%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Kawasaki Frontale
Kashiwa Reysol won 0, drew 6 and lost 3 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Kashiwa ReysolKawasaki FrontaleKashiwa Reysol
6/10 over 2.5
20 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/09
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Kawasaki Frontale
9/10 over 2.5
23 scored
18 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 4-1
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kashiwa Reysol | Draw | Kawasaki Frontale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol | 33%3.07 | 2%44.25 | 1%— |
| Level | 27%3.77 | 8%12.25 | 4%22.57 |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 9%11.21 | 6%16.13 | 10%9.77 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Kashiwa Reysol wins3Kawasaki Frontale wins- D Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashiwa Reysol 4-4
- D Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale 1-1
- L Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale 2-3
- D Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashiwa Reysol 1-1
- D Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale 1-1
- L Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashiwa Reysol 2-0
- D Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale 1-1
- L Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashiwa Reysol 1-0
- D Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale 0-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kashiwa Reysol's side.