V-Varen Nagasaki
38%
Fair odds 2.65
Kawasaki Frontale
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.55
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| V-Varen Nagasaki | Draw | Kawasaki Frontale | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale are rated 67 points above V-Varen Nagasaki (1397 to 1330), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours V-Varen Nagasaki
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to V-Varen Nagasaki's chance of winning and takes the same from Kawasaki Frontale's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.8. V-Varen Nagasaki score 0.8 a match against an average side (11th in J1 League); Kawasaki Frontale concede 2.1 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
V-Varen Nagasaki LLWLD, barely moved; Kawasaki Frontale LWWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
V-Varen NagasakiKawasaki FrontaleV-Varen Nagasaki
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Kawasaki Frontale
9/10 over 2.5
23 scored
18 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-3
- 0-1
- 3-1
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | V-Varen Nagasaki | Draw | Kawasaki Frontale |
|---|---|---|---|
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 24%4.13 | 7%14.97 | 5%21.51 |
| Level | 12%8.51 | 12%8.68 | 16%6.31 |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 2%45.66 | 4%24.88 | 19%5.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.