Annan Athletic
35%
Fair odds 2.82Bookmakers 38%
Kelty Hearts
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.64Bookmakers 36%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Annan Athletic | Draw | Kelty Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Elo model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Best price on offer | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts are rated 75 points above Annan Athletic (1080 to 1005), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Annan Athletic
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Annan Athletic's chance of winning and takes the same from Kelty Hearts's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Annan Athletic score 0.5 a match against an average side (10th in Scottish League Two); Kelty Hearts concede 3.0 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Kelty Hearts
Annan Athletic LLLLL, lost 45 rating points; Kelty Hearts LWLWL, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Annan Athletic
Bookmakers rate Annan Athletic higher than the model does: Annan Athletic 38% against the model's 35%, Kelty Hearts 36% against 38%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Kelty Hearts
Annan Athletic won 4, drew 3 and lost 6 of the last 13 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Annan AthleticKelty HeartsAnnan Athletic
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
20 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/19
10/03
10/10
Kelty Hearts
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
19 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/19
10/10
10/17
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 56%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Annan Athletic | Draw | Kelty Hearts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annan Athletic | 21%4.76 | 5%19.08 | 2%42.55 |
| Level | 13%7.76 | 15%6.48 | 14%7.16 |
| Kelty Hearts | 2%48.08 | 5%20.04 | 22%4.54 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Annan Athletic wins6Kelty Hearts wins- L Kelty Hearts vs Annan Athletic 2-1
- W Annan Athletic vs Kelty Hearts 2-1
- W Kelty Hearts vs Annan Athletic 1-3
- L Annan Athletic vs Kelty Hearts 0-2
- L Kelty Hearts vs Annan Athletic 3-0
- W Annan Athletic vs Kelty Hearts 3-2
- D Kelty Hearts vs Annan Athletic 1-1
- D Annan Athletic vs Kelty Hearts 2-2
- D Kelty Hearts vs Annan Athletic 1-1
- L Annan Athletic vs Kelty Hearts 1-2
13 meetings in the data. Results shown from Annan Athletic's side.