PAOK
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.81
Kifisia
21%
Fair odds 4.75
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| PAOK | Draw | Kifisia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Elo model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours PAOK
PAOK are rated 168 points above Kifisia (1481 to 1314), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours PAOK
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to PAOK's chance of winning and takes the same from Kifisia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours PAOK
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.1. PAOK score 1.0 a match against an average side (4th in Greek Super League); Kifisia concede 1.8 (8th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Kifisia
PAOK WLWLW, lost 15 rating points; Kifisia LWLWW, gained 19 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours PAOK
PAOK won 4, drew 0 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PAOKKifisiaPAOK
9/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/25
11/01
Kifisia
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
16 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/10
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | PAOK | Draw | Kifisia |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK | 36%2.77 | 5%19.34 | 2%56.82 |
| Level | 17%5.81 | 13%7.46 | 9%11.24 |
| Kifisia | 3%39.37 | 4%24.57 | 11%9.23 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4PAOK wins0Kifisia wins- W Kifisia vs PAOK 1-4
- W PAOK vs Kifisia 3-0
- W Kifisia vs PAOK 0-6
- W PAOK vs Kifisia 2-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from PAOK's side.