Volos NFC
31%
Fair odds 3.24Bookmakers 33%
Kifisia
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.37Bookmakers 39%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Volos NFC | Draw | Kifisia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Best price on offer | 2.85 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kifisia
Kifisia are rated 63 points above Volos NFC (1314 to 1250), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Volos NFC
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Volos NFC's chance of winning and takes the same from Kifisia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kifisia
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.5. Volos NFC score 0.7 a match against an average side (14th in Greek Super League); Kifisia concede 1.8 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Kifisia
Volos NFC LLDLL, lost 14 rating points; Kifisia LWLWW, gained 19 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Volos NFC
Bookmakers rate Volos NFC higher than the model does: Volos NFC 33% against the model's 31%, Kifisia 39% against 42%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Volos NFC won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Volos NFCKifisiaVolos NFC
5/10 over 2.5
7 scored
19 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/02
Kifisia
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
16 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/10
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 50%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Volos NFC | Draw | Kifisia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volos NFC | 19%5.26 | 6%17.30 | 3%33.90 |
| Level | 11%9.23 | 16%6.34 | 17%6.02 |
| Kifisia | 2%66.67 | 4%23.36 | 23%4.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Volos NFC wins1Kifisia wins- L Kifisia vs Volos NFC 2-0
- D Volos NFC vs Kifisia 1-1
- W Volos NFC vs Kifisia 4-1
- D Kifisia vs Volos NFC 0-0
- W Volos NFC vs Kifisia 2-1
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Volos NFC's side.