Alanyaspor
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.34
Konyaspor
30%
Fair odds 3.38
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Alanyaspor | Draw | Konyaspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 28% | 30% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Alanyaspor and Konyaspor are rated almost level (1474 and 1465).
-
Home advantage Favours Alanyaspor
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Alanyaspor's chance of winning and takes the same from Konyaspor's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Alanyaspor
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Alanyaspor score 1.1 a match against an average side (17th in Süper Lig); Konyaspor concede 1.3 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Konyaspor
Alanyaspor LLLDW, lost 25 rating points; Konyaspor LWLDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor won 6, drew 3 and lost 1 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AlanyasporKonyasporAlanyaspor
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
16 conceded
08/15
08/23
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/23
11/02
Konyaspor
3/10 over 2.5
6 scored
13 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Alanyaspor | Draw | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | 26%3.80 | 5%19.34 | 2%55.56 |
| Level | 15%6.69 | 17%5.96 | 12%8.54 |
| Konyaspor | 2%49.26 | 5%21.51 | 17%6.03 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Alanyaspor wins1Konyaspor wins- W Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor 2-1
- W Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor 1-2
- W Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor 1-2
- W Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor 2-1
- W Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor 0-2
- D Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor 2-2
- L Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor 0-3
- D Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor 2-2
- W Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor 5-1
- D Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Alanyaspor's side.