Samsunspor
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.52Bookmakers 41%
Konyaspor
33%
Fair odds 3.00Bookmakers 31%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Samsunspor | Draw | Konyaspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
Team news
- Fatih Kaya Out
- Celil Yüksel Out
- Emre Kılınç Doubtful
- Yunus Emre Çift Doubtful
Samsunspor spokesman Suat Çakır confirmed Fatih Kaya and Celil Yüksel are out; Samsunspor have lost their last eight league matches. Positions are my inference where sources gave none, except as noted.
- Deniz Türüç Out
- Adil Demirbağ Out
- Bahadır Han Güngördü Doubtful
Reports say Diogo Gonçalves or Enis Bardhi are expected to replace Türüç; no Konyaspor press conference found. Konyaspor absence details come from only two or three previews, so they are less certain.
Allowing for this news: Samsunspor 40%, draw 27%, Konyaspor 34% (xG 1.44 – 1.31). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: gazetegercek.com.tr, mynet.com, konyaninsesi.com.tr, sporkolik.net
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Samsunspor and Konyaspor are rated almost level (1457 and 1465).
-
Home advantage Favours Samsunspor
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Samsunspor's chance of winning and takes the same from Konyaspor's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.3. Samsunspor score 1.1 a match against an average side (16th in Süper Lig); Konyaspor concede 1.3 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Konyaspor
Samsunspor LLLLL, lost 44 rating points; Konyaspor LWLDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Samsunspor 41%, Konyaspor 31%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Samsunspor won 2, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SamsunsporKonyasporSamsunspor
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
26 conceded
08/17
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/24
11/01
Konyaspor
3/10 over 2.5
6 scored
13 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 49%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Samsunspor | Draw | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | 24%4.13 | 5%18.66 | 2%46.30 |
| Level | 14%7.19 | 16%6.32 | 13%7.79 |
| Konyaspor | 2%48.08 | 5%20.92 | 19%5.32 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Samsunspor wins2Konyaspor wins- D Samsunspor vs Konyaspor 2-2
- W Konyaspor vs Samsunspor 1-3
- W Konyaspor vs Samsunspor 0-1
- L Samsunspor vs Konyaspor 0-1
- L Konyaspor vs Samsunspor 3-0
- D Samsunspor vs Konyaspor 1-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Samsunspor's side.